Where US Tech Policy May Be Headed During a Second Trump Term

President-elect Donald J. Trump is headed back to the White House for a second term. Republicans will control the Senate, while control of the House of Representatives is still up in the air, but leaning towards the GOP as of this publication. The Supreme Court majority consists primarily of justices appointed by Republican presidents, including three appointed by President Trump during his first term.

Tech industry figures, many of whom courted President-elect Trump prior to the election, have extended promises to collaborate with the new administration. Multiple CEOs and tech billionaires issued warm congratulations to the President-elect and his running mate, former venture capitalist and Ohio Senator JD Vance. For instance, Amazon founder and Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos, who ended the newspaper’s long-standing practice of endorsing candidates for President, offered “big congratulations” to President-elect Trump on his “extraordinary political comeback and decisive victory.” Meta founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg also pointed to President-elect Trump’s “decisive victory,” while Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella promised his company is “looking forward to engaging” with the administration “to drive innovation forward that creates new growth and opportunity for the United States and the world.”

Perhaps most consequentially, billionaire (and soon, likely trillionaire) tech entrepreneur Elon Musk, who endorsed President-elect Trump and invested more than $130 million in a political action committee that campaigned to help secure his victory, is anticipated to play a role in the new administration as a “government efficiency czar.” Musk, who stands to earn millions more in federal contracts for his businesses, including SpaceX and Starlink, promised to find “at least $2 trillion in cuts” to the budgets of federal agencies, with which he is currently embroiled in a slew of regulatory battles.

While tech issues were not a major factor in the election, voters nevertheless endorsed a new government that will almost certainly take a more industry-friendly approach to most tech policy questions and seek to diminish the power of regulatory agencies, though one that may also extensively use the bully pulpit to target disfavored companies.

In August and September, Tech Policy Press collected a range of perspectives on possible directions for various US tech policy issues after the election. Our report relied on more than two dozen interviews with tech policy experts, collecting speculation on how the outcome of federal and state elections and other relevant factors might affect tech policy, both in the US and globally. It aimed to provide a range of potential post-election scenarios. Below is a revisited summary of key issues, updated to account for the new political reality and other recent information.

1. Content moderation, “censorship,” and platform liability questions

Throughout the fall campaign cycle, the Republican candidates alleged that right-wing views were “censored” by social media companies, building on duplicitous arguments advanced by Musk and other partisan figures. During the Vice Presidential debate, Vice President-elect JD Vance asserted Vice President Harris sought to “use the power of government and big tech to silence people from speaking their minds.” He repeatedly pointed to the New York Post-Hunter Biden laptop incident, falsely suggesting that decisions by X (then Twitter) and Facebook to temporarily limit access to a news story cost Donald Trump the 2020 election. “Did big technology companies censor a story that independent studies have suggested would have cost Trump millions of votes?” he asked rhetorically during the debate.

Although there is no evidence that the platforms took any significant action during this election cycle (if anything, X promoted Trump, while other platforms stepped back from fact-checking and other moderation efforts), Republicans may well seek to exact revenge against tech firms. Of more concern, the new Trump administration, along with a Republican congress, may further target civil society organizations and academic researchers they regard as part of a “censorship industrial complex.” President-elect Trump’s reelection and Republican gains in the House could propel MAGA allies like Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) to even greater heights. Rep. Jordan, who chairs the House Judiciary Committee’s Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government, may continue using his perch to attack perceived enemies of the right, especially as he angles for more power and influence in the House. Rep. Jordan is rumored to be interested in another bid for Speaker of the House.

A Republican super-majority could also put Section 230 reform back on the table. Both parties have attempted to pass legislation to limit Section 230’s liability protections for platforms, although their motivations and goals differ. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) under Trump may broaden its mission to include Section 230 reforms, as proposed in Project 2025, the Heritage Foundation’s roadmap for remaking the government under a second Trump term. In the section of the document he wrote for the conservative think tank, FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr said that the agency should work with Congress to make legislative changes such that “Internet companies no longer have carte blanche to censor protected speech while maintaining their Section 230 protections.”

It is unclear what fate may await the push for child online safety legislation. The Kids Online Safety Act passed the Senate with broad bipartisan support this summer before running into headwinds in the House. Last month, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) described the legislation as “very problematic.”

Finally, a federal court is considering whether to overturn legislation that would force TikTok’s Chinese owner, Bytedance, to sell the app or see it banned in the US. President-elect Trump has indicated ambivalence about the idea of a ban, and the company apparently saw his victory as its best hope to avoid the most extreme outcome.

2. Artificial Intelligence

President Biden’s sweeping Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence will almost certainly be rescinded. In its official party platform, the Republican party vowed to “repeal Joe Biden's dangerous Executive Order that hinders AI Innovation” and to support instead AI development that’s “rooted in free speech and human flourishing” rather than “radical leftwing ideas.” These ideas included protections for workers, civil rights, and other consumer protections. Whether any elements of the Biden order will survive in whole or in part, including the various bureaucratic mechanisms and roles it created across federal agencies or the recently released national security memorandum, is an open question. What Trump’s AI policy will mean in practice remains unclear; President-elect Trump signed two executive orders on AI during his first term, in February 2019 and December 2020, which may provide some clues as to how the new administration will approach the issue.

It is also unclear whether any of the goals of the Bipartisan Senate AI Working Group roadmap released following the 2023 “AI Insight Forums” will survive in a Republican-led Senate. The forums were led by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) in partnership with Sens. Mike Rounds (R-SD), Martin Heinrich (D-NM), and Todd Young (R-IN). Civil society groups widely criticized the roadmap they produced for prioritizing industry interests and foregrounding competition with China, but Republicans may push things in the other direction.

3. Cryptocurrency

The outcome of the 2024 elections was a major victory for the crypto lobby, which reportedly spent more than $130 million to secure a friendlier government. Given that the Republican Party promised to end Democrats' "unlawful and un-American crypto crackdown" in its official party platform, it’s assumed that a second Trump administration will loosen crypto regulations, including through executive action. Securities and Exchange Commission’s Gary Gensler, a Biden appointee who has aggressively gone after the cryptocurrency market and previously described it as “rife with fraud, scams, bankruptcies and money laundering,” will likely get the boot, given Trump’s pledge to fire Gensler on his first day back in office in order to “make Bitcoin great again.”

4. Trade and tariffs

US tech policy is increasingly a geopolitical issue, particularly in the race to 'beat' China. Tariffs could play a large role in shaping the next administration’s approach and could spark a trade war. Trump has promised to impose a 20% universal tariff on all imports, with an additional tariff of at least 60% on all Chinese imports. And while goods are traditionally thought of as physical items, the world is inching towards a race to control non-physical goods and information, which could spell trouble for the export of API calls, for instance.

There’s also the potential for President-elect Trump to reverse the Biden administration’s efforts to work with European allies on free trade and data transfer agreements, including the recent Data Privacy Framework. It’s unclear what will happen to the US-EU Trade and Technology Council, a bilateral venue created by President Biden and EU officials in 2021.

5. Internet freedom

Zooming out, the US commitment to a free and open internet may wane under Trump. The US has long played a role in advocating for an open internet, most notably in resisting authoritarian efforts to fragment the global internet or create infrastructure that limits connectivity and free expression. While the Biden administration led a joint statement by over 60 nations known as the “Declaration for the Future of the Internet,” Trump may have less interest in such diplomatic efforts in pursuit of a more nationalistic approach.

4. Privacy

Privacy and surveillance issues will likely rise to the fore across US states, particularly if the Trump administration pursues its promise to mobilize federal agencies to deport millions of immigrants and Republican states continue to criminalize abortion.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) won reelection and is expected to become Chairman of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, where he is now Ranking Member. This could be the death knell for the American Privacy Rights Act (APRA), bipartisan draft legislation that would establish a national consumer data privacy standard, given Cruz’s past hostility to it. After APRA was introduced, Sen. Cruz railed against its private right of action provision and the notion of granting the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) broad authority to enforce violations of the law, saying he could not “support any data privacy bill” that “gives unprecedented power to the FTC to become referees of internet speech and DEI compliance.”

Later, at a July Commerce Committee hearing on privacy and AI, Sen. Cruz doubled down, saying that “APRA is not the solution,” and as currently constructed, is “more about federal regulatory control of the internet than personal privacy.” While Cruz has mentioned general support for Congress setting a nationwide data privacy standard, experts Tech Policy Press previously spoke with worried a Cruz chairmanship would lead to a weaker, more industry-friendly bill with less bipartisan support.

FISA reform is another area where there may be movement. A “FISA Reform Commission” chartered under the legislation that extended the controversial Section 702 of FISA for two years is languishing in Congress. President-elect Trump blurted, “KILL FISA” in a social media post at the time of the legislative debate over re-authorization, but those occupying the White House typically embrace broad surveillance powers while in office.

5. Markets, competition, and antitrust

The Neo-Brandeisian antitrust movement ushered into government under the Biden administration is likely obstructed for now. Although Vice President-elect JD Vance once said that Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan “is doing a pretty good job,” there appears to be little chance Khan will remain in her post. Republican FTC Commissioners Andrew Ferguson or Melissa Holyoak could be elevated to the chairmanship under Trump. Other figures, such as Department of Justice Antitrust Division Assistant Attorney General Jonathan Kanter, will also likely depart.

While Trump and his allies are keen to punish their perceived political enemies, as they did with the antitrust cases against Big Tech firms like AT&T at the end of his first term, observers expect the Trump administration to ‘dial back’ antitrust enforcement. At a campaign event last month, Trump suggested he would stop short of seeking a breakup of Google following a judgment in the Google search antitrust case issued in August.

Another major question hanging over federal regulators is the impact of the Supreme Court’s Loper Bright decision and whether it will stymie the government’s ability to craft and execute effective regulations. After the Court struck down Chevron deference, the policy reach of regulatory agencies such as the FTC may face more challenges in the courts, and any new legislation involving federal agency enforcement will require lawmakers to get more specific.

6. Connectivity

Broadband access remains an important tech policy issue in the US, given the persistent digital divide among low-income households and rural communities. One key program that helped to close the digital divide in the US was the Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP), which provided monthly subsidies for 23 million households to connect to the Internet. However, the uptake of the subsidies was higher than expected, and Congress must extend additional funding to keep the program running.

With Republicans now in control of the Senate, the prospects for reviving the ACP and making it permanent remain uncertain. While Vice President-elect JD Vance previously expressed support for the ACP, one of the major hurdles will, again, be Sen. Cruz, who previously vowed to fight funding for the program. There’s more optimism that Congress will maintain funding for high-speed broadband in unserved and underserved rural areas through programs like the Universal Service Fund (USF), which Sen. Cruz supports.

Net Neutrality rules, which were dashed under the Trump administration and reinstated under the Biden administration, are expected to be dashed again. FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr will likely take the Commission’s chair. Commissioner Carr has also taken aim at the Biden administration’s broadband infrastructure plan, writing in the Wall Street Journal that “[u]nder Biden-Harris policies, it takes too long and it costs too much to build broadband in America.” He wrote approvingly of Elon Musk’s Starlink service, which will likely be favored by the Republican administration.

Conclusion

The terms of the debate over tech policy are not defined by the outcome of elections alone, with a range of factors—such as longer-term geopolitical trends, the influence of Silicon Valley corporations and elites, and changing sentiments of Americans about tech and its role in their lives—driving the agenda as well. And not everything will change—Republicans are just as committed to viewing certain tech policy issues through the lens of national security and strategic competitiveness as Democrats. But it seems clear that industry interests will be handsomely rewarded by the new administration across numerous policy areas, even as culture war politics and President-elect Trump’s own instincts inform other aspects of the Republican agenda.

Related Reading:

• Perspectives on US Tech Policy After November
• One Year Into Biden's AI Order: Will a New President Change Course?
• Tracking Elon Musk’s Political Activities
• What the Democratic and Republican Parties Say About Tech Policy
• Social Media Lawsuits by State Attorneys General Surmount Section 230, Other Challenges